Meta analysis

Warhammer 40000

Methodology

Number of weeks to include, most recent first.

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Faction Win rate Games played X-0 X-1
Necrons 59.0% (51.2 – 66.5) 155 (7.9%) 4 11
Imperium - Adeptus Custodes 63.0% (53.9 – 71.3) 115 (6.2%) 3 13
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Dark Angels 52.9% (43.4 – 62.2) 104 (5.1%) 2 5
T'au Empire 50.5% (40.7 – 60.3) 97 (5.3%) 0 7
Orks 40.9% (31.4 – 51.0) 93 (5.1%) 1 2
Tyranids 51.6% (41.6 – 61.5) 93 (5.1%) 2 9
Imperium - Astra Militarum 48.9% (38.7 – 59.1) 88 (4.9%) 2 6
Chaos - Death Guard 59.1% (47.9 – 69.4) 77 (4.3%) 0 9
Chaos - Emperor's Children 55.2% (44.1 – 65.8) 77 (4.1%) 1 5
Leagues of Votann 45.0% (33.9 – 56.6) 70 (4.1%) 0 5
Imperium - Imperial Knights 39.1% (28.5 – 50.9) 69 (3.6%) 0 2
Imperium - Adepta Sororitas 47.8% (36.5 – 59.4) 69 (3.8%) 3 2
Chaos - Daemons 47.8% (36.3 – 59.5) 67 (3.4%) 1 1
Chaos - Chaos Space Marines 38.9% (27.8 – 51.2) 63 (3.2%) 1 1
Chaos - Chaos Knights 42.2% (30.4 – 55.0) 58 (3.0%) 0 3
Aeldari - Craftworlds 44.6% (32.4 – 57.6) 56 (3.0%) 0 3
Imperium - Adeptus Mechanicus 56.4% (43.3 – 68.6) 55 (3.0%) 2 5
Tyranids - Genestealers Cult 52.8% (39.7 – 65.5) 54 (2.8%) 0 3
Chaos - World Eaters 51.0% (37.5 – 64.4) 49 (2.4%) 1 2
Imperium - Grey Knights 45.8% (32.6 – 59.7) 48 (2.6%) 0 3
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Space Wolves 66.3% (51.9 – 78.2) 46 (2.8%) 5 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Blood Angels 44.0% (30.2 – 58.9) 42 (2.4%) 1 3
Aeldari - Drukhari 27.1% (15.2 – 43.6) 35 (2.1%) 0 0
Chaos - Thousand Sons 34.4% (20.4 – 51.7) 32 (1.5%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Ultramarines 62.1% (44.0 – 77.3) 29 (1.9%) 1 5
Aeldari 53.7% (35.6 – 70.8) 27 (1.3%) 0 2
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Salamanders 44.2% (27.1 – 62.8) 26 (1.3%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes
Small sample
55.3% (34.0 – 74.8) 19 (0.9%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Raven Guard
Small sample
26.5% (11.4 – 50.2) 17 (0.9%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Black Templars
Small sample
41.7% (19.3 – 68.0) 12 (0.9%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Deathwatch
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Aeldari - Harlequins
Small sample
60.0% (23.1 – 88.2) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Iron Hands
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Imperial Fists
Small sample
80.0% (37.6 – 96.4) 5 (0.2%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - White Scars
Small sample
12.5% (1.3 – 60.4) 4 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Inquisition
Small sample
66.7% (20.8 – 93.9) 3 (0.2%) 0 1

Methodology

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Force disposition Global win rate vs Take and hold vs Priority assets vs Reconnaissance vs Purge the foe vs Disruption
Take and hold 54.0% (49.9 – 58.1) 563 games - 58.4% (48.9 – 67.3) 107 games 61.9% (52.4 – 70.6) 105 games 47.9% (38.3 – 57.8) 97 games 59.3% (46.0 – 71.3) 54 games
Priority assets 49.2% (44.6 – 53.9) 442 games 41.6% (32.7 – 51.1) 107 games - 49.0% (39.2 – 58.8) 96 games 58.1% (47.2 – 68.3) 80 games 58.8% (43.4 – 72.6) 40 games
Reconnaissance 45.8% (40.6 – 51.1) 346 games 38.1% (29.4 – 47.6) 105 games 52.1% (42.2 – 61.8) 96 games - 46.0% (34.2 – 58.2) 62 games 52.9% (31.0 – 73.8) 17 games
Purge the foe 50.0% (44.7 – 55.3) 337 games 53.1% (43.2 – 62.7) 97 games 41.9% (31.7 – 52.8) 80 games 54.0% (41.8 – 65.8) 62 games - 55.6% (37.3 – 72.4) 27 games
Disruption 42.4% (34.9 – 50.4) 152 games 40.7% (28.7 – 54.0) 54 games 41.2% (27.4 – 56.6) 40 games 47.1% (26.2 – 69.0) 17 games 44.4% (27.6 – 62.7) 27 games -

Methodology