Meta analysis

Warhammer 40000

Methodology

Number of weeks to include, most recent first.

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Faction Win rate Games played X-0 X-1
Necrons 58.1% (49.7 – 66.0) 136 (7.4%) 4 7
T'au Empire 55.2% (46.1 – 63.9) 116 (6.9%) 0 12
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Dark Angels 49.0% (39.5 – 58.6) 101 (5.5%) 1 5
Imperium - Adeptus Custodes 62.4% (52.6 – 71.2) 101 (5.8%) 1 10
Orks 46.7% (36.9 – 56.9) 92 (5.3%) 2 3
Chaos - Daemons 50.6% (40.3 – 60.8) 87 (4.6%) 1 3
Tyranids 51.2% (40.7 – 61.6) 84 (4.8%) 1 7
Imperium - Astra Militarum 46.3% (36.0 – 57.1) 82 (4.8%) 2 3
Chaos - Emperor's Children 57.0% (45.5 – 67.9) 71 (4.1%) 1 5
Chaos - Death Guard 56.8% (44.1 – 68.6) 59 (3.7%) 0 7
Imperium - Adepta Sororitas 46.4% (34.0 – 59.3) 56 (3.2%) 2 1
Imperium - Imperial Knights 38.4% (26.8 – 51.5) 56 (3.2%) 0 1
Chaos - Chaos Space Marines 40.2% (28.4 – 53.2) 56 (3.2%) 1 1
Chaos - World Eaters 36.6% (25.2 – 49.7) 56 (3.0%) 1 2
Imperium - Adeptus Mechanicus 52.8% (39.7 – 65.6) 53 (3.2%) 1 5
Chaos - Chaos Knights 49.0% (36.0 – 62.2) 52 (3.0%) 1 3
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Blood Angels 44.2% (31.6 – 57.7) 52 (3.2%) 2 3
Aeldari - Craftworlds 47.0% (33.9 – 60.5) 50 (3.0%) 0 4
Aeldari - Drukhari 28.9% (17.7 – 43.4) 45 (2.8%) 0 0
Imperium - Grey Knights 32.9% (20.6 – 48.2) 41 (2.5%) 0 1
Leagues of Votann 46.2% (31.8 – 61.3) 40 (2.8%) 0 4
Chaos - Thousand Sons 55.9% (39.5 – 71.1) 34 (2.1%) 1 3
Tyranids - Genestealers Cult 60.3% (43.6 – 74.9) 34 (1.8%) 0 4
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Space Wolves 65.2% (48.1 – 79.0) 33 (2.1%) 4 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Ultramarines 62.0% (42.6 – 78.2) 25 (1.6%) 1 3
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Salamanders 40.5% (22.6 – 61.3) 21 (1.2%) 0 1
Aeldari
Small sample
55.3% (34.0 – 74.8) 19 (1.2%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Raven Guard
Small sample
30.6% (14.4 – 53.6) 18 (0.9%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Black Templars
Small sample
47.1% (26.2 – 69.0) 17 (1.2%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes
Small sample
60.0% (31.3 – 83.2) 10 (0.5%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Imperial Fists
Small sample
87.5% (52.9 – 97.8) 8 (0.5%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Deathwatch
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Iron Hands
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Aeldari - Harlequins
Small sample
60.0% (23.1 – 88.2) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Inquisition
Small sample
66.7% (20.8 – 93.9) 3 (0.2%) 0 1

Methodology

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Force disposition Global win rate vs Take and hold vs Priority assets vs Purge the foe vs Reconnaissance vs Disruption
Take and hold 53.5% (49.1 – 57.9) 483 games - 55.8% (44.7 – 66.4) 77 games 43.5% (33.9 – 53.7) 93 games 64.4% (54.2 – 73.6) 90 games 64.4% (50.8 – 76.0) 52 games
Priority assets 50.0% (45.0 – 55.0) 379 games 44.2% (33.6 – 55.3) 77 games - 57.2% (46.0 – 67.7) 76 games 48.7% (37.9 – 59.6) 78 games 56.6% (40.9 – 71.0) 38 games
Purge the foe 53.0% (47.8 – 58.1) 353 games 57.5% (47.4 – 67.1) 93 games 42.8% (32.3 – 54.0) 76 games - 58.5% (46.3 – 69.6) 65 games 63.0% (44.2 – 78.5) 27 games
Reconnaissance 44.1% (38.7 – 49.5) 320 games 35.6% (26.4 – 45.8) 90 games 52.6% (41.6 – 63.3) 78 games 41.5% (30.4 – 53.7) 65 games - 46.0% (28.3 – 64.7) 25 games
Disruption 40.3% (32.9 – 48.2) 155 games 35.6% (24.0 – 49.2) 52 games 43.4% (29.0 – 59.1) 38 games 37.0% (21.5 – 55.8) 27 games 54.0% (35.3 – 71.7) 25 games -

Methodology