Meta analysis

Warhammer 40000

Methodology

Number of weeks to include, most recent first.

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Faction Win rate Games played X-0 X-1
Necrons 56.0% (47.5 – 64.2) 133 (6.6%) 3 9
Orks 43.4% (34.6 – 52.6) 113 (6.0%) 2 4
Imperium - Adeptus Custodes 62.1% (52.8 – 70.5) 112 (6.0%) 3 12
Tyranids 52.4% (42.9 – 61.6) 106 (5.6%) 1 9
T'au Empire 53.4% (43.8 – 62.8) 102 (5.2%) 2 7
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Dark Angels 49.5% (39.7 – 59.3) 96 (4.6%) 1 7
Chaos - Death Guard 58.2% (48.0 – 67.8) 91 (4.6%) 0 10
Imperium - Imperial Knights 42.6% (32.8 – 53.0) 88 (4.3%) 0 4
Imperium - Astra Militarum 48.3% (38.1 – 58.6) 87 (4.6%) 2 5
Chaos - Daemons 46.8% (36.2 – 57.7) 79 (3.7%) 0 2
Imperium - Adepta Sororitas 50.7% (39.6 – 61.7) 75 (3.7%) 1 4
Chaos - Emperor's Children 50.0% (38.9 – 61.1) 74 (3.7%) 1 1
Leagues of Votann 39.9% (29.1 – 51.6) 69 (3.5%) 1 2
Chaos - Chaos Knights 43.1% (31.8 – 55.2) 65 (3.1%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Space Wolves 57.9% (45.6 – 69.3) 63 (3.3%) 3 2
Imperium - Adeptus Mechanicus 58.3% (45.7 – 69.9) 60 (3.1%) 2 5
Chaos - World Eaters 52.5% (40.1 – 64.6) 60 (2.9%) 2 2
Imperium - Grey Knights 51.7% (39.2 – 64.1) 58 (3.1%) 0 6
Chaos - Chaos Space Marines 40.7% (28.7 – 54.0) 54 (2.7%) 1 2
Tyranids - Genestealers Cult 53.8% (40.6 – 66.5) 53 (2.7%) 0 2
Aeldari - Craftworlds 45.9% (32.8 – 59.7) 49 (2.3%) 0 2
Chaos - Thousand Sons 33.7% (21.5 – 48.7) 43 (2.1%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Ultramarines 59.5% (43.5 – 73.7) 37 (2.3%) 1 6
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Blood Angels 40.0% (25.6 – 56.4) 35 (1.7%) 1 1
Aeldari - Drukhari 45.3% (29.5 – 62.1) 32 (1.7%) 1 0
Aeldari 50.0% (33.2 – 66.8) 30 (1.4%) 0 2
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes 52.3% (32.7 – 71.2) 22 (1.0%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Salamanders 47.5% (27.9 – 68.0) 20 (0.8%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Black Templars
Small sample
47.2% (26.8 – 68.7) 18 (1.0%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Iron Hands
Small sample
52.9% (31.0 – 73.8) 17 (0.8%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Raven Guard
Small sample
32.1% (14.0 – 58.0) 14 (0.6%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - White Scars
Small sample
31.8% (12.4 – 60.7) 11 (0.6%) 0 0
Imperium - Inquisition
Small sample
71.4% (35.9 – 91.8) 7 (0.4%) 0 2
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Imperial Fists
Small sample
60.0% (23.1 – 88.2) 5 (0.2%) 0 0

Methodology

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Force disposition Global win rate vs Take and hold vs Priority assets vs Purge the foe vs Reconnaissance vs Disruption
Take and hold 51.8% (47.7 – 55.8) 590 games - 54.8% (46.4 – 63.0) 135 games 48.7% (39.9 – 57.6) 119 games 54.5% (44.2 – 64.4) 89 games 55.1% (41.3 – 68.1) 49 games
Priority assets 51.0% (46.4 – 55.5) 459 games 45.2% (37.0 – 53.6) 135 games - 54.8% (44.1 – 65.1) 83 games 56.4% (45.9 – 66.4) 86 games 59.1% (44.4 – 72.3) 44 games
Purge the foe 48.9% (44.0 – 53.8) 403 games 52.9% (44.0 – 61.7) 119 games 45.2% (34.9 – 55.9) 83 games - 46.9% (35.3 – 58.9) 65 games 42.1% (27.9 – 57.8) 38 games
Reconnaissance 47.9% (42.5 – 53.3) 326 games 45.5% (35.6 – 55.8) 89 games 43.6% (33.6 – 54.1) 86 games 53.1% (41.1 – 64.7) 65 games - 63.9% (41.2 – 81.7) 18 games
Disruption 44.5% (37.2 – 52.2) 165 games 44.9% (31.9 – 58.7) 49 games 40.9% (27.7 – 55.6) 44 games 52.6% (37.3 – 67.5) 38 games 36.1% (18.3 – 58.8) 18 games -

Methodology