Meta analysis

Warhammer 40000

Methodology

Number of weeks to include, most recent first.

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Faction Win rate Games played X-0 X-1
Necrons 58.6% (50.6 – 66.2) 151 (7.6%) 4 10
T'au Empire 55.6% (46.9 – 64.1) 124 (6.8%) 0 13
Imperium - Adeptus Custodes 62.6% (53.5 – 70.9) 115 (6.1%) 2 11
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Dark Angels 50.4% (41.4 – 59.5) 113 (5.7%) 2 5
Orks 44.3% (35.2 – 53.8) 106 (5.7%) 2 3
Imperium - Astra Militarum 49.5% (39.7 – 59.3) 97 (5.3%) 3 4
Chaos - Daemons 48.4% (38.6 – 58.4) 94 (4.6%) 1 3
Tyranids 51.2% (40.7 – 61.6) 84 (4.4%) 1 7
Chaos - Emperor's Children 57.0% (46.0 – 67.3) 79 (4.2%) 1 5
Chaos - Death Guard 55.2% (43.4 – 66.5) 67 (3.8%) 0 7
Chaos - World Eaters 38.3% (27.4 – 50.5) 64 (3.2%) 1 2
Imperium - Imperial Knights 40.5% (29.2 – 52.8) 63 (3.4%) 0 2
Imperium - Adeptus Mechanicus 53.6% (40.7 – 66.0) 56 (3.2%) 1 6
Chaos - Chaos Space Marines 40.2% (28.4 – 53.2) 56 (3.0%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Blood Angels 44.6% (32.4 – 57.6) 56 (3.2%) 2 3
Imperium - Adepta Sororitas 46.4% (34.0 – 59.3) 56 (3.0%) 2 1
Chaos - Chaos Knights 47.3% (34.8 – 60.1) 56 (3.0%) 1 3
Aeldari - Craftworlds 47.0% (33.9 – 60.5) 50 (2.7%) 0 4
Aeldari - Drukhari 28.9% (17.7 – 43.4) 45 (2.5%) 0 0
Leagues of Votann 46.6% (32.7 – 61.0) 44 (2.7%) 0 4
Tyranids - Genestealers Cult 57.3% (42.2 – 71.2) 41 (2.1%) 0 4
Imperium - Grey Knights 32.9% (20.6 – 48.2) 41 (2.3%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Space Wolves 63.5% (47.4 – 77.1) 37 (2.1%) 4 1
Chaos - Thousand Sons 55.9% (39.5 – 71.1) 34 (1.9%) 1 3
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Ultramarines 62.0% (42.6 – 78.2) 25 (1.5%) 1 3
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Raven Guard 25.0% (11.6 – 45.8) 22 (1.1%) 0 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Salamanders 40.5% (22.6 – 61.3) 21 (1.1%) 0 1
Aeldari
Small sample
55.3% (34.0 – 74.8) 19 (1.1%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Black Templars
Small sample
47.1% (26.2 – 69.0) 17 (1.1%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes
Small sample
60.0% (31.3 – 83.2) 10 (0.4%) 1 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Imperial Fists
Small sample
87.5% (52.9 – 97.8) 8 (0.4%) 1 1
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Deathwatch
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Aeldari - Harlequins
Small sample
60.0% (23.1 – 88.2) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - Iron Hands
Small sample
40.0% (11.8 – 76.9) 5 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Adeptus Astartes - White Scars
Small sample
12.5% (1.3 – 60.4) 4 (0.2%) 0 0
Imperium - Inquisition
Small sample
66.7% (20.8 – 93.9) 3 (0.2%) 0 1

Methodology

The estimated range (in brackets under the win rate on the faction table, in its own column on the matchup table) shows the interval the true win rate very likely falls within (95% confidence interval, Wilson score): the smaller the sample, the wider that range.

Force disposition Global win rate vs Take and hold vs Purge the foe vs Priority assets vs Reconnaissance vs Disruption
Take and hold 52.8% (48.6 – 57.0) 530 games - 42.9% (33.9 – 52.4) 106 games 55.4% (44.7 – 65.6) 83 games 63.3% (53.2 – 72.3) 94 games 63.4% (50.3 – 74.8) 56 games
Purge the foe 52.7% (47.9 – 57.6) 403 games 58.0% (48.5 – 67.0) 106 games - 40.9% (30.9 – 51.7) 82 games 58.0% (46.7 – 68.5) 75 games 63.3% (45.5 – 78.1) 30 games
Priority assets 50.8% (45.9 – 55.6) 397 games 44.6% (34.4 – 55.3) 83 games 59.1% (48.3 – 69.1) 82 games - 48.8% (38.3 – 59.4) 82 games 58.8% (43.4 – 72.6) 40 games
Reconnaissance 44.5% (39.3 – 49.8) 344 games 36.7% (27.7 – 46.8) 94 games 42.0% (31.5 – 53.3) 75 games 52.4% (41.8 – 62.9) 82 games - 46.3% (29.2 – 64.4) 27 games
Disruption 40.1% (32.9 – 47.7) 166 games 36.6% (25.2 – 49.7) 56 games 36.7% (21.9 – 54.5) 30 games 41.2% (27.4 – 56.6) 40 games 53.7% (35.6 – 70.8) 27 games -

Methodology